Thursday, October 24, 2013

Thoughts on Middle Eastern Borders

Last month, I took a lot of interest in an article entitled "Stop Blaming Colonial Borders for the Middle East's Problems". I loved this article.

People frequently try to blame the Middle East's problems on the West, usually based on historical ignorance. The best example is probably the debate over Israel and Palestine. A historically accurate (though extremely partisan) discussion of the history of the topic can be found here. Those unfamiliar with the history of the conflict frequently claim that Israel was created by Western states out of guilt for what happened in the Holocaust; in actuality, Jewish migration into the region began much earlier, and land was (by and large) purchased outright while the disputed areas of Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank (in addition to present-day Jordan) were still a component of the Ottoman Empire.

Another region whose history is often misrepresented is the Persian Gulf region. Folk who are unfamiliar with the region's history criticize Western nations for their presence in the Gulf. Writing about the Dhofar Rebellion, South African author S. Monick notes:

In this second Omani war Britain had relinquished all power in the Middle East. Its surrender to Marxist insurgent forces in Aden in 1967, and consequent evacuation from South Arabia in the same year, had finally signalled Britain's' total abdication of power in the Arabian Peninsula; a decision confirmed by its departure from Bahrain in 1971, thus completing her total withdrawal from east of Suez. This abdication of power was further manifested in the cessation of Britain's treaty obligations with the Trucial Oman States, and the replacement of this political entity with the United Arab Emirates (formed in 1971). Hence, in this second campaign Great Britain was an intruder, so to speak, in the affairs of the Persian Gulf to an extent not apparent in the war of 1957-1959, when her intervention could be justified in terms of her military and political presence in neighbouring South Arabia (i.e. in terms of her interest in maintaining stability within a region in which she had a powerful vested interest).

Even now, as America is attempting to "pivot to the Asia-Pacific region", the United Kingdom is considering a "return to East of Suez" to address critical strategic needs. Meanwhile, the Gulf States have repeatedly invited their external allies to work with them in order to advance mutual strategic goals. (One example of this is the allegation, unsubstantiated though it may be, that the Qatari Emir offered to "pay in full" for America's military presence in Qatar. That's just one example. And the Gulf States are far from being puppets of Western influence: Saudi Arabia and Qatar have provided funding and weapons to unsavory elements in the Syrian civil war, Bahrain's has been extremely robust in its suppression of political protest, and Oman continually refuses to take a hard line against Iran. Without taking a side on any of these ongoing and contentious issues, the point is that many such accusations are made in ignorance. These accusations tend to rely upon ignorance and oversimplification; in the case of the claims about arbitrary borders noted in the article I noted above, they ignore other prevailing factors in favor of a simple glance at the map.

So, what does this have to do with risk management? It's actually pretty simple: foreign policy is risk management on a global scale. Western involvement in the Middle East has tended to occur at the invitation of the sitting governments (noteworthy examples being Jebel Akhdar War, and Operations Vantage, Storm, Earnest Will, Prime Chance, Nimble Archer, Praying Mantis, Desert Shield and Desert Storm, among others, and with honorable mention to the Arab Revolt and Operation El Dorado Canyon). Major world powers share strategic interests with Middle Eastern powers, in addition to other interests. They manage those risks through both political, military, and economic means, using whatever resources and leverage they can bring to bear. It's easy to blame seemingly arbitrary borders for all of this; in reality, there are a variety of far more complex factors that come into play, and both Western and Middle Eastern nations accept additional risks at their own peril, as evidenced by recent and current events.

Oversimplification is easy, and Western audiences are accustomed to neat, tidy, coherent stories. Reality is nearly always far more complex, and far less climactic than we expect. And just like our own history, the history of the Middle East continues to unfold - frequently irrespective of any Western influence.

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