Survive! (or, Managing Risks During Catastrophic Events)

One of my classmates recently inspired a bit of fun on Facebook, and it's inspired this blog post. He posted the following:

Saw this and thought of you - you probably have lots of this already!

What You’ll Need to Escape New York

In fact, that pictorial was an illustration for an article, The Preppers Next Door, about folks in New York who prepare to survive "Doomsday" - perhaps the collapse of civilization, or a natural disaster, or a foreign invasion. Anyway, my jocular response went something like this:

The guy who put this kit together is an amateur. There's some good stuff in there, obviously, but there's a LOT of redundant kit that's going to weigh him down without adding any extra value, which means that I would escape, and he'd be caught by the marauding hordes. For example, two utility axes, a hacksaw, and an E-tool? Amateur. Really, all you need is the E-tool, but you MIGHT carry that first axe just to be sure, and maybe a wiresaw instead of a hacksaw; not all four. Tool kit? Try one Leatherman multitool. The guy also has two massive cooking sets and three different water storage options, which is so overkill it's not even funny. Full set of eating utensils? Try a titanium spork. Bam. Nailed it.

Now this guy, on the other hand has the right idea: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXguo4Zluro

Of course, the best way to escape a collapse of civilization in New York is to just stay away from New York in the first place, which is why I'm the thirty year reigning champion of the Escape from New York contest. I've had a couple of close calls when I had to fly into the Newark airport that I don't like to think about!

Now, if you're only interested in the conclusion and want to skip some of the talk about actual survival packing, click here. YouTube user PackRat556 has a lot of good videos covering a variety of topics, including basic land navigation, field survival techniques, and good equipment to use in the outdoors. One of PackRat556's survival kits is outlined in the following video series.




As you can tell, PackRat556 does a better job of prioritizing and packing realistically than Aton Edwards, whose pack is the one featured in that New York Times article. In fact, a survival situation like the ones these "preppers" are gearing up for is almost entirely unlikely to ever happen in the first place. Even if it did, folks like Aton Edwards appear to have prioritized high speed gear like fire escape hoods and respirators over more practical items - like a change of clothes. The truth is that most people aren't in good enough shape to just walk (and don't forget swim) out of New York City, or anywhere else; and if you happen to be in good enough shape to do it, you'll soon wish that you'd swapped one or two of your walkie-talkies for a couple of extra pairs of wool socks.

The real experts in this kind of thing are the military, and specifically the light infantry and special operations communities. A few years ago, a series about the British Special Air Service had a great segment on this. It runs from 5:46 to 8:54, and I've posted it below.


Now, most folks who are trying to survive a disaster aren't going to be carrying 120 to 130 pounds of gear, and they won't be worrying about claymore anti-personnel mines or four hundred rounds of ammunition. That said, it gives an indication of what a person would really need to do. Ask yourself: are you actually in good enough shape to walk thirty miles in two or three days? If you're part of the small cross section of the population who could, could you do it with sixty pounds of gear on your back? Fifty? Forty? It's actually pretty physically taxing, even for someone in good shape. Let's face it, most folks have enough trouble with a fifty or sixty pound suitcase or rucksack in the airport.

A few years ago, I was working a job that could have put me into a desert survival situation. I carried a fairly lightweight day pack that was loaded with field gear for my job, along with water, food, and a handful of other items. By contrast, one of my co-workers got the CamelBak Motherlode - apparently the largest pack that CamelBak made. Every time he went out to the desert, he loaded his bag with a full bladder of water, two side-strapped canteens, a propane stove, propane bottles, eggs, bacon, a coffee pot, coffee grounds, maps, GPS, compass, map case, map pens, map compass and protractors, shortwave radio, entrenching tool, plus job-specific field gear and probably some other stuff I'm forgetting. I once watched as he literally dropped the tailgate on one of our field trucks to get his bag out of the truck bed, because he couldn't lift it over the side wall of the truck bed. If necessary, I could have hiked back to camp with my gear, while he would have been forced to either wait it out, or abandon most of what he'd brought.

The bottom line is that when you're actually in a mobile survival situation, lighter is better. Some of that high speed gear may sound cool, but when every ounce is at a premium, you'll find yourself wishing that you'd left that soldering iron and one of your advanced water filters behind. Of course, the risk of society collapsing overnight in a manner that requires a survival pack is practically non-existent. What's much more likely - in fact, what we've seen on the news with disasters like Hurricane Sandy, Hurricane Katrina, and Snowmageddon - is a disaster requiring emergency preparedness in one's own home. While deployed to the Middle East, I was involved in planning for a potential Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO) as a reaction to the Arab Spring, and the idea is the same. In these "more likely" cases, one's objective should be securing and occupying their home until emergency services arrive, or until basic services like electricity and water are restored.

Thus, in the most likely survival situation that most of us should expect to face, the governing factor should be longevity. There are some great resources at Ready.gov to help you get started. Also relevant, particularly if you're living overseas, are some of the military and other U.S. Government resources on NEOs, such as these from the Navy. There have been several NEOs conducted by Western governments in recent years, as well as precautionary NEO preparations. Being prepared to sustain oneself and one's family for up to two weeks, and possibly to defend one's home, are key elements of personal risk management.

Travel Safely

In December, three westerners were kidnapped in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen (link). Another recent kidnapping that has made the news is the capture of a French national in Mali in mid-November. Although the recent situation in In Amenas, Algeria wasn't "travel-related", the folks involved were certainly working in a high risk area where things can go pear-shaped in relatively short order.

I don't know the specific details of these kidnappings, and it's tough to get solid information about the In Amenas incident, so I don't want to speak specifically to whether they could have been avoided, or what the folks in question could have done differently. However, there are things you can do when travelling that will reduce your risks of becoming a victim of terrorism. It's also worth noting that many of the same techniques that will make you a difficult target to kidnap can also reduce your chances of becoming a victim of crime. Here are a few resources you should consider using.

OCJCS PC 5260 Antiterrorism Individual Protective Measures: This card is a bit dated, but the information is still good. Everyone travelling abroad, particularly to countries in which security is a concern, should review this pamphlet before each trip.

State Department Travel: One of the best sources of current information about any potential destination is the State Department's travel website. The State Department issues periodic Travel Warnings and Travel Alerts, as well as offering the STEP program. If you're headed abroad, you should definitely visit this site before you do.

State Department Country Reports on Terrorism: The State Department's Country Reports on Terrorism are updated annually, and are a great resource for gauging the terrorist threat at your destination, as well as the host nation government's level of commitment in addressing terrorist threats.

CIA World Factbook: The World Factbook has additional information about every country in the world. While not specifically directed at security threats, information on the World Factbook can be helpful when planning your trip.

Last January, I went to Bahrain, Muscat, and Beirut. Before I went, I reviewed the State Department and CIA information listed above. It improved my experience in the countries in question, but also helped me to understand the security environments that I was going to find myself in. Obviously, Muscat was less dangerous than Bahrain, and both were less dangerous than the situation in Beirut. This information helped me to make choices that kept me safe, and that helped me to enjoy my trip.

No matter what your reason for travel may be, ensure you embark with security in mind. By making yourself a difficult target, you can reduce your risk of falling victim to terrorists or criminals.

Geospatial Risk Management Part 2: GEOINT Security

Note: This is the second of a two-part series on risks relating to geography. In this post, I'll discuss some of the risks that arise from the increasing ease by which geospatial information can be accessed.

We often take technology for granted, and we often overlook the risks associated with the unprecedented access we have to modern information. Sites like Wikimapia.org and Google Maps, and utilities like Google Earth put abilities that used to be the sole purview of advanced government intelligence agencies in the hands of the public - literally at our fingertips. Google even offers similar utilities for exploring the surface of Mars and the Moon.

This new access to information introduces a great deal of risk. These examples range from the absurd (Teenager's 60ft painting of penis on parents' roof spotted in space), to the fascinating (Satellite Photos Take You Inside Gadhafi’s Compound; Apple, Bing Maps Reveal Secret Sites), to the tragic (Jaycee Lee Dugard: did Phillip Garrido trail a Google Street View camera van?). At the tip of the spear, they can even violate operational security, as evidenced by the Internet's revelations about Iran's nuclear program (Hunting for Iran’s secret nuclear plant near Qum on Google Earth), or China's ballistic missile submarines (New Chinese Ballistic Missile Submarine Spotted, New Chinese SSBN Deploys to Hainan Island), or Syria's nuclear program (Photos Show Cleansing of Suspect Syrian Site) or even America's own submarine secrets (Oops, another top secret exposed). While many of these cases can be chalked up to oversights or inadequate precautions, they all underscore the same lesson: that whether it's national security or personal privacy at stake, we must approach these new capabilities with sober vigilance.

These mapping websites and utilities aren't the only way that this information can be compromised. I've pointed in an earlier post to a resource that Michael Yon posted about geotagging and other social media risks, particularly while deployed. Yon was able to demonstrate this a few weeks ago by using embedded geotags in military public affairs images to find where the photos had been taken.

Most folks don't have to worry so much about this in their day-to-day lives - unless, of course, they're raising the kind of kids who would paint a sixty foot penis on their roof in order to be spotted by Google Earth. Even so, we take this particular vein of easy information for granted at our own risk. Some of my past security work has led me to use some of these utilities to meet professional needs for information, and if I could use it for my methods, an aggressor could just as easily use it to collect their own information.

I encourage anyone reading this to have a look on Google Maps, Google Earth, or Wikimapia at places like their own home, their place of work, or other locations of importance. Use it as an exercise: what can you figure out from just looking at an open source aerial image? What information could someone with an adversarial motive figure out? From there, you can do everything in your power to employ the Five Step OPSEC Process. Identify the information available about the locations that matter to you, and then take whatever countermeasures are available to mitigate those risks.

Geospatial Risk Management Part 1: Learning to Navigate

Note: This is the first in a two-part series on risks relating to geography. In this post, I'll discuss the risks that can arise through an inability to navigate, as well as ways to mitigate them.

I believe that land navigation is one of the most critical skills a person can possess. Being able to determine one's location and move to another location can reduce or even eliminate a variety of risks relating to business and personal security. There's a particular piece from The Guardian (Map reading tips for a world without satnav) that I read when it was first published in 2009, and it continues to amuse me because so many Americans have given up on land navigation altogether. It's amusing in clips like this one, from the hit TV show The Office...


... but it can turn tragic all too quickly, as the Kim Family found out in the Oregon wilderness in 2006. The original story was that James Kim had relied on a GPS, but this turned out to be untrue. Regardless, Mr. Kim's inability to navigate contributed to his tragic death, and nearly cost the lives of his family. Similar stories have cropped up in recent months regarding the low quality of Apple's mapping software on the iPhone 5 (Apple Maps could be life-threatening, Australian police warn; Apple Maps glitch could be deadly - Drivers were sent 'off the beaten track'). The lesson is clear: electronic mapping utilities can be helpful, by they're no substitute for developing strong navigation skills.

Land navigation isn't a tough skill to learn, and once you've learned it it's not tough to practice, but it does take some occasional fine tuning. Here are some resources that can help. Some of them are great for beginners, while others are better for those who have had some experience at navigating.

Land Navigation.org: This website is a great place to start. This website is specifically intended for the unitiated in map reading and land navigation.

Army Resources: FM 3-25.26, plus Map Reading, and Land Navigation lessons: Good navigation skills are big with military folks. The manuals are a bit dry, but the information's good will be helpful even to newcomers. These three items are definitely worth checking out.

Geocaching.org: A great way to practice your navigation skills is by geocaching. Geocaching is typically done with a GPS, but if you can get good maps and a compass, you can use those instead. The real benefit of geocaching is that it familiarizes you with finding your location and moving to a destination, which is the real essence of land navigation.

Wikimapia.org: I tend to prefer Wikimapia to Google Maps for a few reasons. First, the interface is a bit more user friendly. Second, the search function on Wikimapia tends to be better at finding things for which you don't have an address, particularly in foreign countries. The other benefit I've found is that, if you know what you're doing, you can combine elements of the URLs from Wikimapia, with the .GPX files from EasyGPS to pre-load waypoints into your GPS.

Google Maps: Google Maps is sort of the standard these days (other than Google Earth, which is a bit more involved). Google Maps has the benefit of allowing you to search by address, which is good when combined with Wikimapia (along the lines of my earlier post about diversification).

Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection: Most of the maps at the Perry-Castañeda Collection's website are a higher level than anyone would use for navigating, but it's still a great website, and I've found it useful.

I was fortunate to have learned land navigation from the Marines when I was an undergraduate. That's not to say that I've never gotten myself lost - for example, when I was in Beirut, there was a point when I had intended to be checking out Roman ruins here, but found myself among posters of Bashar al Assad right around here. Beirut's sort of a special case, as it's about the least tourist-friendly city I've ever visited, but I was pleased that my ability to navigate eventually got me to where I was going against all odds, rather than taking me further from my destination and possibly into some real danger. Hear me now and believe me later, knowing how to navigate can absolutely save your life, and it has many other lesser benefits as well.

Life Cycle Management

In mid-December, I saw an article on the Federation of American Scientists' Strategic Security Blog (Germany and B61 Nuclear Bomb Modernization) that I took an interest in. While a study of nuclear weapons and their role in the history of post-World War II Germany is fascinating in its own right, this situation serves as an object lesson in life cycle management.

For the unitiated, life cycle management for an organization involves planning for and scheduling the life cycle tools, particularly equipment, that the organization uses. The example in question is an interesting one, because even when they're maintained, nuclear weapons have a shelf life due not only to the age of the equipment, but also to the half life of their fissile material. At a certain point, older nuclear warheads will decline in potential yield. While I don't believe that depleted uranium is derived from any decommissioned munitions, the concept is similar.

Most organizations don't employ nuclear weapons as tools of their trades, but the concept of life cycle management applies to just about every operation you can think of. The omission of life cycle management from an organization's plans can be problematic - for example, when critical assets suffer catastrophic failures because they've exceeded their design lifetime. When an organization plans for life cycle management, that organization can budget for replacing equipment as well as scheduling replacement for times of low operational tempo. A school, for example, might schedule maintenance of its building for the summer vacation months in order to prevent that maintenance from disrupting instruction.

Some risks are difficult to plan for, but life cycle management shouldn't be one of them. Evaluate your equipment. Evaluate its age, evaluate its criticality, evaluate its cost. Determine what its vulnerabilities are, be it to failure or simple obsolescence owing to its age. Once that's determined, establish a schedule for phased maintenance, refurbishment, disposal, and replacement. Again, this is a quintessential case of applying an ounce of prevention to save yourself from needing a pound of cure.

Please Rob Me

As I've mentioned previously, online OPSEC is important. The perceived anonymity of the Internet, coupled with the idea of communicating important information to our family and friends through websites like Facebook and Twitter, have led to what some call "oversharing" - posting information that shouldn't be made public. A good website for learning about this is Please Rob Me. It's specifically targeted at Twitter users, but the information should be sobering to anyone who reads it.